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The virus is spreading, were are told, including widely throughout the vaccinated population, because of the unvaccinated who are now dirty non-citizens., On Tuesday, French President Macron gave an interview to the La Parisien, in which he dehumanized the unvaccinated and urged other citizens to hate them, likening them to their worst enemies., I am not about pissing off the French people, Macron told the readers of Le Parisien. Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. While the President leads a nationwide response, bringing together government resources and private-sector ingenuity, every American can help slow the virus spread and keep our most high-risk populations safe: Todays guidelines build on the CDCs general recommendations to help prevent spread of the virus. Flattening the curve could take at least several more weeks. Chan School of Public Health have looked at what U.S. hospitals might endure if Wuhan-scale spread occurred in this country. That would ultimately have less deaths. What flattening the curve really means, and why going hard - ABC "Fifteen days of aggressive social distancing is necessary, but will not be sufficient," she said. That is what the curve represents. When did This will be the detriment of many already dead and countless more that will die from this virus (particularly in a contintent like Africa). when did 14 days to flatten the curve start. However, at the national level, it seems the Biden Administration is doubling down on the status quo of shutdowns, social distancing, and masks, as the primary solution to COVID-19. Line shows 7-day moving average of new cases per day in this state. state and local government budgets cratered. Indeed, this mass suffering has already begun in many parts of the world. For visiting Era of Light. "It is fair to say, some form of social distancing will be required until we have a vaccine or effective treatment identified," Morrato said. Well need 30 years to reach sufficient immunity. Hard-left activist Matthew Yglesias, for example,complainedthis week that flattening the curve isnt good enough.. The one thing we hope to have in place, and I believe we will have in place, is a much more robust system to be able to identify someone who is infected, isolate them, and then do contact tracing.. Of course flattening the curve will slow the coronavirus. In the early days of the COVID-19 panicback in mid-Marcharticles began to appear pushing the idea of flattening the curve (theWashington Postran an article called Flatten the Curve on March 14). communications, covid-19, health, Feedback or questions? We want to hear from you. The United States and other countries, experts say, are likely to be hit by tsunamis of Covid-19 cases in the coming weeks without aggressive public health responses. (i.e. A look back at the first coronavirus guidelines issued by the federal government demonstrates just how little was known at the time about the virus that has sickened almost 30 million Americans and killed at least 535,000 in the U.S. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. The message took off. Thenewnarrative was this: the death toll will simply be too gruesome and unbearable to allow people to continue on with some semblance of an ordinary life. "I think that's where federal leadership fell short because on the national stage, we had the former president downplaying the importance, where on the front lines, we were seeing a different picture.". Similarly, in Colorado,during an April 1 briefing, GovernorJared Polis stated that when it comes to COVID-19his policy is stamping this out, and claimed that mandatory social distancing could not be eased until total cases were falling. Vespignani, along with colleagues, published a recent modeling study in Science that showed travel restrictions which the United States has adopted to a degree only slow spread when combined with public health interventions and individual behavioral change. The initiative should not have been tied to a timeline, she said, but instead to a specific task like reducing daily new infections to a certain level. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on Friday that social distancing would likely have to continue for "several weeks. There was one idea, though, that we might have abandoned too quickly. Americans should continue practicing strict personal hygiene, including washing hands regularly for at least 20 seconds at a time and wiping down surfaces in the home often. A week ago, the Trump administration released a 15-day plan to slow the spread of the coronavirus in the US. Taiwan* New cases confirmed each day (7-day-average) down The first case of COVID-19 in Taiwan* was reported 992 days ago on January 21, 2020. A new study from University of WisconsinMadison researchers has found that the message spread far, reaching nearly three-quarters of Americans by August 2020. We are supposed to applaud the notion that if we behave the government will grant us rights we already have five months from now? Suck it up, do your share, so that therell be a lot more life to live yet after this period. CHANG: Well, to explain exactly what it means to flatten the curve of infectious diseases, we're joined now by Dr. Drew Harris. In one of her first public appearances since leaving her role in the White House, Birx said there were doctors "from credible universities who came to the White House with these opposite opinions.". "We know that early and aggressive containment strategies are most effective in saving lives," Morrato said. Trump's 15-Day Coronavirus Response Plan to Flatten Curve Is In the future, she added, social-distancing recommendations might be less aggressive than they are now but they're unlikely to go away for at least a year. PCR testing and some straightforward assumptions indicate that, as of April 29, 2020, more than half a million people in Stockholm county, Sweden, which is about 2025% of the population, have been infected (Hansson D, Swedish Public Health Agency, personal communication). Coronavirus: What is 'flattening the curve,' and will it work? That is just not the case. Meeting outside, opening windows and wearing face coverings did far more. She added that little was known at the time about the virus, and it was difficult to parse good science from bad. We experienced two mini-peaks - one in the Spring and one in the Summer - rather than one massive peak in the Spring. Is all that economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19? The truth is we have no choice. I know I speak on behalf of the President and our entire team when I say how grateful we are for governors all across the country and the seamless partnership that we have forged with them and with state health officials, Vice President Mike Pence said yesterday. Checkout the memes below. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. The guidelines ask Americans to practice social distancing to stay home, avoid social gatherings and nonessential trips to stores, and stay 6 feet away from others. If you appreciate what we do, please support us. But covid-19 is more preventable than other medical issues that might spur the need to be admitted to the ICU particularly with vaccines available that greatly reduce the chance of serious illness. Yet a year later, less than ten percent of the U.S. population has reported contracting the virus (29.5 million cases in a population of 328 million), while roughly half a million (0.16%) have lost their lives. So far more than 22,000 Americans have tested Nonetheless, one is still likely to encounter rabid COVID warriors on social media, who think that interminable lockdowns will (somehow) significantly reduce the overall total deaths from COVID-19. The preferred political solution lies in both continuing to encourage social distancing and in prohibiting larger gatherings. Its really all borne out of the risk of our health care infrastructure pulling apart at the seams if the virus spreads too quickly and too many people start showing up at the emergency room at any given time.. That means that we know we should be doing it. Well find out. And we will continue to do this, to the end. For the latest coronavirus case total and death toll, see. But we were right that flooding hospitals with preventable illness was not helpful. Ethics of Digital Contact Tracing: Principles. But flattening the curve, reflected by the lower gray swell, is achieved by taking strong measures, like physical and social distancing, to make sure the number of cases increases more gradually. We were given apocalyptic predictions about infection rates of "40 to 70 percent" and told millions would die. Barbot, now a professor at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, said in a phone interview that the federal government's testing woes put the city "behind the eight ball before the game even got started. And in 2020 it is by far not as isolating due to the internet, cell phones, social and other media. "The thing we were worried about was going to kill a giant portion of our population A half a million Americans have died with COVID, and yeah, it's a tragedy, but what is more of a tragedy is that there is not an emphasis on keeping people healthy. Dear Mrs Branswell, On Sunday, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, told Bloomberg that the US unemployment rate could surge to 30% in the coming months. On the efficacy of masks, Dr. Anthony Fauci has held positions ranging from "masks aren't necessary" to wearing two or three masks is "common sense. Until then, only minimal essential activities will be allowed. Wen, who is also anemergencyphysicianand public health professor at George Washington University, noted it wasn't just politicians, but also scientists, who didn't understand how to fight the virus. Members of the Trump administration advocated that the virus just be allowed to spread to get to herd immunity. I would suggest that people not underestimate how effective the chart was based on this finding alone, because the popularity of this chart itself is strong evidence of how important the message was and how critical it is for scientists to send the right message out about something like this, she says. Mar 11, 2021 2 min read 14 DAYS TO FLATTEN THE CURVE Open Letter to Members of the Legislative Assembly March 11, 2021 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE A massive, unprecedented nationwide response. Most in the deaths have been in the Seattle area. Trump asked people to stay home, avoid gathering in groups, forgo discretionary travel and stop eating in food courts and bars for the next 15 days. And we wonder how a pandemic got politicized? I think scientists should definitely do more of this kind of visual messaging, says Li. When asked who they trusted, people ranked medical professionals ahead of other scientists and the CDC. But the reality is that with state and local laboratories in the country still getting up to speed with how to test for this infection, the full extent of spread is not known. The virus does not seem lethal in most cases if proper medical oversight is given. When Governments Switched Their Story from Flatten the Contact Subscribe Facebook Instagram Twitter, 29.5 million cases in a population of 328 million, "[a]symptomatic spread of COVID-19 is 'very rare. On April 9, the Hawaii Department of Educationannouncedthat all public schools are expected to stay shut until COVID-19 is no longer spreading in the community, defined as four weeks with no new cases.. The future is one in which every move must be controlled and monitored to prevent the spread of this disease. A website maintained by Johns Hopkins University which is considered the go-to website for Covid-19 statistics scrapes data from a variety of sources. To 'Flatten The Curve What is flattening the curve, and how does it relate to the coronavirus pandemic? "We can see that the US trajectory is on par with where China, Italy, and Spain were at a similar stage of the epidemic in their countries," Morrato said. On Fox News this week, Nicole Saphier, also a radiologist, argued that it is time to move forward and allow this mild infection to circulate so we can continue to build that hybrid immunity, meaning immunity obtained through vaccination and through infection. ", "I cannot see that all of a sudden, next week or two weeks from now, it's going to be over," he said in an interview with the Today show. That's because confirmed cases give a clearer picture of how people become infected and for how long. So its the top priority right now that we bend the curve.. Vaccines do something similar, allowing potentially low-risk people to get a shot to reduce the likelihood that theyll get infected and spread it to others. That was the idea of flattening the curve, reducing exposure to the virus to limit the number of people who fell ill and, by extension, who needed to be hospitalized. One of the most heavily vaccinated places on the planet, withthestrictest vaccine mandates in the country, New York City, accounted for nearly 10% of all cases in the U.S. The arrival of omicron as winter nears has led to a surge in new cases around the globe and in the United States, including in better-vaccinated states. You would think between growing herd immunity and the deployment of three vaccines, unnecessary nanny state regulations on individuals and businesses would start to diminish, and in some places they certainly have. Amid the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S., a number of different states have already flattened the curve. Reporting from the frontiers of health and medicine, You've been selected! (The jury is still out on how much school closures would help slow spread. 13.000. Search interest in the term plateaued at the end of May 2020 and then basically stopped after that August. Some simple math offers alarming answers, U.S. communities are braced for coronavirus outbreaks. Trudeau blames unvaccinated for everything pic.twitter.com/vhw9QqvsmL, Roberto Wakerell-Cruz (@Robertopedia) January 5, 2022. Our government in the Netherlands is basing their strategy completely on the above model, and Im convinced it will be a disaster. Notably, the 15-day guidance made no mention of who should seek out testing and under what circumstances. Indeed, the Chinese-style containment strategy has failed so completely thateven the WHO has abandoned it. Just on the wrong axis. Saskia Popescu, an epidemiologist and biodefense professor at George Mason University, said the "15 days to slow the spread" guidance demonstrated "a lack of awareness for managing outbreak response." That was the argument: Stay healthy, keep the hospitals from being overloaded. WebWhen did "flatten the curve" start meaning get infection spread to zero? The measures did contain the spread of influenza but were abandoned within 18 days, once it became clear that the H1N1 influenza virus, albeit widespread in Harvards top infectious diseases epidemiologist Lipsitch projects deaths in the millions. And so the more that we can minimize it, the better.. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider Those who even questioned the efficacy of shutting down the world were called insensitive and told they were "going to kill grandma." We adapt to our new and improved circumstances and then lower the bar for what we count as intolerable levels of discomfort and risk." The greener the background, the bigger the downward trend of new cases in this state. Let's hope our government has learned that lesson as we move into year two. The degree to which we have allowed the government to unilaterally bring our economy and lives to a halt without due process and input from the general public is unacceptable. A large number of people becoming very sick over the course of a few days could overwhelm a hospital or care facility. Got a confidential news tip? Many experts at the time said it would have been impossible to slow a rapidly transmitting respiratory infection by effectively shutting down enormous cities and possibly counterproductive. Manage the Curve (Thanks Vijay!) Biden then went on to encourage children to stay away from the unvaccinated, further stoking hatred, fear, and divide. 'Flattening the curve may be the worlds best bet to slow - STAT If a hospital is overwhelmed by Covid-19 cases, patients will have a lower chance of surviving than they would if they became ill when the hospitals patient load was more manageable. Any delay means more people will die. OMG, theres thick black smoke rolling out of the eaves of the house, but theres no visible fire! And South Korea, which has had the third largest outbreak outside of China, also appears to be beating back transmission through aggressive actions. I Will Not Be Silenced! Theres people inside, but for we dont want to over-react, so dont call the fire department until we see the fire! At the end of the 15 day period, we will make a decision as to which way we want to go. While 74% of adults said they were aware of the chart, this awareness did not correlate with their intention to engage in social distancing or their belief in whether interventions could control the pandemic. The emergency declaration will give healthcare providers on the front lines of this pandemic the flexibility they need to respond. COVID Despite experts, world wide, weighing in on the harms of school closures and masking children, bureaucrats across the country are beating that dead horse. Let Big Tech and the corporate media know they are powerless in stopping the spread of truth by visiting our store now! Thestudy from the NBERfound that these restrictions not only failed to save lives, and greatly exacerbated the destruction of the working class but have in fact resulted in anincreaseof excess mortality. Thus, on April 2, Anthony Fauci, one of the lead bureaucrats on the White Houses COVID-19 advisory commission insisted that mandatory social distancingcould not be eased until further notice: If we get to the part of the curve where it goes down to essentially no new cases, no deaths for a period of time, I think it makes sense that you have to relax social distancing, [Fauci] added. Initially, we were told to wear gloves and be wary of surfaces, only to have the CDC months later backtrack and state the "virus does not spread easily from contaminated surfaces." Hes not convinced that people in the United States comprehend whats coming. Many over 50 years in i.e. The story behind the coronavirus 'flatten the curve' chart - Fast And then we again run the risk of overwhelming hospitals and thereby putting even those at little risk from the virus at risk of more-limited health-care options. Subscribe nowto get breaking news from President Trump before anyone else. Surgeon General (March 2020). This was what was really keeping me up at night, to unfortunately see Italy approaching that point, Vespignani said, adding that now that the country has effectively followed Chinas example and put its population on lockdown, hopefully this will work.. However, the magazine removed the CDCs message that preventative measures could also reduce the total number of infections, instead focusing on not overwhelming hospital capacity. One year of 15 days to flatten the curve by Ray Fava March 16, 2021 in Opinions, Videos NOQ Report Is Moving to AmericaFirstReport.com March 16, 2020 is the day in which President Donald Trump largely caved to the demonic forces surrounding him. This article was published more than1 year ago. People in car crashes, people with cancer, pregnant women who have complications during delivery all those people risk getting a lesser caliber of care when a hospital is trying to cope with the chaos of an outbreak. But the quarantines, unprecedented in modern times, appear to have prevented explosive outbreaks from occurring in cities outside of Hubei province, where Wuhan is located. Their analysis, posted on a preprint server in advance of peer review, came to a chilling conclusion. If results are virtually identical regardless of the level of the shutdown, wouldn't the most pragmatic solution be to mirror Florida and allow individuals to make their own decisions about what is best for the health and safety of their families? "This is where technology really begins to take us forward in leaps and bounds.". For example, reducing 1,000 cases by half each day would mean a reduction of 500 cases on Day 1 and 125 cases on Day 3 but only 31 cases on Day 5. Morrato said social-distancing efforts in other countries could offer clues as to how long Americans should remain isolated from one another. We also want to express great appreciation to the American people. While many folks, including those in government, have begun to open their eyes to the data and realize that locking people in their homes, shutting down society, and forcibly medicating people against their will does not stop Covid, others are still pressing on. All of these things are things that I want the public to keep wondering if we should be doing this. The fear mongering is just going to ramp up as the weeks go on. Vaccines were, in a way, the inheritor of the sentiment behind flatten the curve. The idea there was that people could take steps (staying at home more, social distancing) that would help the community broadly (by not overwhelming hospitals). Jan Welvaarts, Daily Analysis of COVID-19 infection curve by country https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-march-15-31-2020-critical-time-contain-covid-19-us-khvatkov/. By early May, it was clear that the containment strategy was failing, since, in the United States at least, few elected officials were prepared to stomach the idea of keeping their economies locked down until a vaccine appeared or until new cases disappeared completely. If youre vaccinated and boosted, you are highly protected. That they now portray to affirm what they have been saying all along is the pinnacle of cowardish babble. Tags: Hard questions sometimes need innovative and hard decisions. "What ought to be "common sense" is speaking the truth to the American people, even when situations are challenging and demoralizing. Other public health specialists weren't so forgiving of the White House's early response to the pandemic. Best trending 14 Days to Flatten the Curve Meme. "If we can get all of America to pitch in for the next 15 days, we can flatten the curve. - Dr. Jerome Adams, U.S. So, we must keep society locked down indefinitely until a vaccine is found or until there can be enough testing and tracking of infections among the entire population. Numbers: Has NYC started flattening the curve Look how safe the government is keeping their citizens. Reporting and analysis from the Hill and the White House, Its time to talk about flattening the curve again. In this visualization, states that appear in shades of orange have experienced a growth in new cases over the past two weeks. She added that failings by the federal government to prioritize the testing of large parts of the population was one of the earliest missteps. It is a viral pneumonia that is far more contagious and deadly than the flu. By late April, numerous states governors and municipal officials were discussing ways to scale back their lockdowns. The shade of the colors indicates the size of each states growth or decline in new cases; the darker the shade, the bigger the change. But with the intense focus on vaccines that has followed the deep politicization of the pandemic, that argument has often been explicitly rejected. Johns Hopkins experts in global public health, infectious disease, and emergency preparedness have been at the forefront of the international response to COVID-19. "As of today, we are on a course to double the number of confirmed cases in the US every two to three days.". "We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself," Trump wrote. "At the end of the 15 day period, we will make a decision as to which way we want to go.". TheFinancial Timesreported on April 29: The World Health Organization has defended Swedens approach to tackling Covid-19, saying it has implemented strong measures to tackle the virus. 2022 NewsWars Surgeon General (March 2020) On March 16, 2020, one year ago today, President Donald Trump announced a fifteen-day effort to "slow the spread" of COVID-19. The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the perspective or beliefs of the Era of Light staff. Privacy Policy A person checks in at security at an international departure terminal at John F. Kennedy Airport in New York on March 7. On March 16, 2020, the Trump administrationreleased a 15-day planto slow the spread of the coronavirus in the US. WebFederal guidelines advise that states wait until they experience a downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period before proceeding to a phased opening. "If everyone makes this change or these critical changes and sacrifices now, we will rally together as one nation and we will defeat the virus and we're going to have a big celebration all together," Trump said at a White House press briefing on March 16, 2020, where he also announced the first vaccine candidate entering phase 1 clinical trials. Unnecessary large gatherings should be canceled. Instead, that early guidance focused mostly on urging people who feel sick to stay home and for everyone to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people. VP Pence: No higher priority than the health of the American people. Mina agreed: Without a very clear signal coming from our government at the national level, its really just like a small trickle as people start to recognize that this is happening.. contact-us@uc.wisc.edu, 2023 Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System, DOWNLOAD IMAGE: https://uwmadison.box.com/v/flatten-curve, CDC / The Economist / Drew Harris / Nan Li, a 2007 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, The Economist printed a modified version of the chart, Drew Harris adapted The Economists chart to share on Twitter, Survey: Many still find it hard to stay home during pandemic, worry about mental health during isolation, Public Health Madison & Dane County releases new orders requiring face coverings, UW experts design masks for campus from scratch, https://uwmadison.box.com/v/flatten-curve. Seattle is already in the thick of it. 700 Days Into 14 Days To Flatten The Curve And The Only Thing Thats Reduced Is Your Freedom. Not surprisingly, it is inspiring to see the way tens of millions of Americans are responding with compassion [and] with common sense., Kay Coles James: President Trumps declaration helps mobilize our nation, ? Though public-health officials view social distancing as a necessary measure to contain the outbreak, work-from-home and no-travel rules are already having a profound effect on the national economy. But we know from pandemic planning and previous experiences that the sooner we implement these measures, the more effective that they are, she said. Since then, spread of the virus in China has slowed to a trickle; the country reported only 19 cases on Monday. But even as testing capacity has improved in the last week, hospitals have faced a shortage of swabs needed to perform tests particularly in states like Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, and Washington. - Greg Lukianoff. This begs for hard thought into the arena of Planned Infection as an effective handling of this pandemic. President Trump declared a National Emergency in response to the Coronavirus on Friday, freeing up more than $42 This idea was premised on spreading out the total number of COVID-19 infections over time, so as to not overburden the healthcare infrastructure. The answer for many is no for a variety of reasons. Countries and regions that have been badly hit by the virus report hospitals that are utterly swamped by the influx of sick people struggling to breathe. This afternoon, President Trump and the White House Coronavirus Task Force issued new guidelines to help protect Americans during the global Coronavirus outbreak.